Explanation of Mating Reports

Mating Reports Overview

One of my greatest frustrations as a Stallion Owner is Truenicks. It is the go-to mating software because it is free for breeders to use and it is easy to access as it is owned by Bloodhorse Magazine. The problem is TrueNicks looks at the Sire and Broodmare Sire only.

In the case of a new Stallion with a limited number of runners, it automatically reverts to the Grandsire and in the case of Airoforce, it reverts to the Great Grandsire as Colonel John has been in Korea for the past 7 years. In short it is a highly inaccurate report for both Airoforce and Uncle Vinny.

In addition, at it’s best, Truenicks does not give the appropriate consideration for the bottom half of the pedigree, the dam side. This is very important when you consider that the Mitachondrial DNA, the DNA responsible for the energy and athleticism of the foal, only comes from the Dam side and is passed on only through the Dam and not the Stallion. When you remove Airoforces bottom half of his pedigree you remove two MULTIPLE GRADED STAKES WINNING SPRINTERS Cuvee and Carson City.

In addition you remove Colonel John’s Dam, the great Sweet Damsel who has had 14 Runners, 13 Winners and 4 Blacktype Winners. This is a huge part of Airoforces pedigree. When you consider his top half is all stamina with Tiznow and Colonel John, his bottom half is all speed coming from his multiple stakes placed sprinter Dam Chocolate Pop, but also his Broodmare Sire and Broodmare Grandsire Cuvee and Carson City, both Multiple Graded Stakes winning sprinters.

Bring on Tesio

Because of the tremendous limitations of Truenicks, I began researching other mating software that take into account the bottom side of the pedigree in their reports and I originally found G1 Goldmine which looks at the last 5 Generations top and bottom and generates reports based on historical success of the 5 key crosses in a pedigree.

After using G1 Goldmine Reports for several years and finding them to be highly accurate in their prediction of ability, the same person who created G1 Goldmine took the down time during COVID to create a new software entitled Pedigrees360, which looks at the past 9 generations and applies the linebreeding philosophy of Federico Tesio, the one true genius when it comes to breeding thoroughbreds.

Tesio at his peak had two stallions and 12 broodmares on his little farm in Italy from 1880’s through the 1950’s. Not a huge operation by anyone’s standards, yet on any racetrack today worldwide, you could trace at least 80% of the horses running back to the bloodlines coming off of Tesio’s farm. Without Tesio, we do not have Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector and many many other top stallions. Here is a short explanation of each software/report.

Here is the results of a validation study utilizing two Tapit Colts, one earned 782,000 a start, the other earned 450 per start. Hugely different results and a great example of how Truenicks, G1 Goldmine and Pedigrees360 differ in the results they deliver.

Here is Flightline, he won 4,514,800 in 6 starts averaging $752,633.00 per start. The second horse in the study is another Tapit Colt “Just Tap It” who earned $7,310.00 in 15 starts averaging $487.00 per start. Top level runner vs. 5K claimer.

Now, Let's Compare Reports

Now let’s look at their reports starting with the TrueNicks Report. The Truenicks report shows both horses to be A++ rated, but the slow horse Just Tap It has a higher Variable than Flightline, so on paper, the breeder would be inclined to believe he would be breeding a better horse with Just Tap it.

So, according to TrueNicks, when looking at just the sire and broodmare sire, the Just Tap It colt was going to be the superior runner. However, when you look at G1 Goldmine and Pedigrees360, and you include the ENTIRE pedigree top and bottom, you get a much more accurate picture:

G1 Goldmine Impact Analysis

The G1 Impact Analysis clearly shows Flightline to be a far superior mating horse than Just Tap It. Now let’s look at the G1 Stallion Match otherwise knows as the 20/20 Report.

As you can see by the reports, once again, the G1 Report is very accurate in predicting success. Just Tap It was not rated near as high as Flightline who was rated as a 20/20 match (a superior match). Now lets jump to Pedigrees360 linebreeding report.

Pedigrees 360 Linebreeding

As shown by the numerous red dots in the slow to very slow level on the pedigrees360 chart, the report accurately displayed a 5K claiming horse with Just Tap It and with the Green dots in the Tesio and Champion Range of Flightline’s report, it is accurate in predicting a champion level runner, which flightline clearly was. To summarize this validation study, when you rely on looking at the top of a pedigree only you will almost always rate progeny from one stallion very similar.

When you look at the entire pedigree going back 9 generations including the top and bottom of the pedigree, you get the most accurate prediction. In this study, Truenicks completely missed what these matings would produce and all three of the G1 and Pedigrees360 reports nailed it, extremely accurate. Here is an explanation of each report.

G1 GOLDMINE STALLION MATCH

The Stallion Match looks for similarities between the pedigree of your hypothetical match/foal with the pedigrees of stakes winners worldwide.

The results are then displayed in the chart on the upper right-hand corner of the page showing Graded Stakes Winners and similar Pedigrees and it is sorted by the CSI Number (Common Similarity Index).

The CSI is a measurement of how the pedigree of graded stakes winners matches the pedigree of your hypothetical mating. The higher the CSI, the closer your hypothetical mating matches a graded stakes winner. A search which results in 2 or more stakes winners with a CSI above 20 is a 20/20 match which is considered a very good mating.

G1 GOLDMINE HORSE INFORMATION (IMPACT ANALYSIS) REPORT

This is where up to 210 key crosses within the pedigree is analyzed for effectiveness. You are analyzing both male and female line up to 5 generations.

Each search also shows if the relationship was positive or not. This report is shown using both color values and numeric values in each cell. The higher the number in each cell, the greater the cross exceeded expectations. Where there is a negative score this means the cross was not positive and this will be shown in the color red and a number less than 0.

The number of cells with high number indicates those specific crosses are overachieving expectations. Any number above zero is a positive. Numbers 1 to 3.9 are green, numbers 4.0 and above are indicated by yellow (gold) color boxes and cells with a negative number (below zero) is indicated by the color red.

Matings that have two or more red boxes should be avoided. Cells that show an X simply means there is not enough data to generate a score.

PEDIGREES 360
Pedigrees 360 was founded on the principle of using Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence to identify deep linebreeding patterns that are present in elite racehorses.

The computer models used are based on multidimensional views of 9 generation pedigrees. Pedigrees360 identified clear ancestral combinations present in most champions and we overlay those attributes with inbreeding co-efficents of the horse, the sire, and the dam.

Two surprising discoveries from our research is the presence of negative combinations which we found in most slow horses, and we also discovered that 9 Gen attributes were different in champion male and female horses, so we have different analytical models for each sex.

The Pedigrees 360 is based on Deep Linebreeding. Deep Linebreeding Clusters is the foundation pattern present in the most successful breed-shaping stallions in the past 100 years.

Linebreeding is the presence of an ancestor multiple times, in both halves of the pedigree, through multiple sons and multiple daughters. Stallions have X & Y chromosomes, the Y is passed to a son, and the X is passed to a daughter, so building multiple clusters of both sons and daughters within 9 generations of a pedigree provides an opportunity for both chromosomes to express themselves in the foal.

The purpose of linebreeding is to amplify an ancestor's influence. Consider the following accumulations in some of Tesio's finest champions as well as other elite racehorses of the past 100 Years:

Based on the above information, why would you not take a look at G1 Goldmine and Pedigrees360 prior to putting together your matings. Although bloodlines are only one part of a successful mating, it is the foundation and utilizing G1 Goldmine and Pedigrees 360 will give you a very strong foundation to start from with 73% accuracy.

After that, you need to match the horses physically, mentally and performance on the track or in the breeding shed.

If anyone is interested in seeing how their mares match up to our stallions, I would be thrilled to run those reports for you at no cost. If your mare(s) does not match one of our stallions, we will find the best match for your mare at no cost to you.

Contact me today at jjeans@drivenhire.com and send me the names of your mares and we can get the reports back to you within 24 hours.